Last week Sen. Johnson (R,WI) introduced S 1846,
the Critical Infrastructure Protection Act (CIPA) of 2015. In my initial post
about the introduction of this bill I commented that it might be a companion
bill to HR
1073; that is not the case even though they share a common title. This bill
requires more extensive activities from DHS than just consider electromagnetic
pulse events (natural and man-made) in federal planning scenarios.
The bill starts off by adding a definition of ‘EM Threat’ to
6
USC 101 which encompasses electromagnetic pulses caused both by manmade
actions and natural events. It then adds a new paragraph to 6
USC 121(d) requiring DHS to develop a “strategy to protect and prepare the
critical infrastructure of the American homeland against EM threats, including
from acts of terrorism” {new §121(d)(26)(A)(i)}.
It then goes on to add two new sections to the Homeland
Security Act of 2002:
SEC. 318. EM threat research and
development.
SEC. 526. National planning
frameworks and education.
Research
The new §318
would require DHS S&T to conduct research and development to mitigate the consequences
of EM threats. That research would include {new §318(b)}:
∙ An objective scientific analysis of the risks to critical infrastructures
from a range of EM threats;
∙ Determination of the critical national security assets and vital
civic utilities and infrastructures that are at risk from EM threats;
∙ An evaluation of emergency planning and response technologies that
would address the findings and recommendations of experts, including those of
the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic
Pulse Attack;
∙ An analysis of technology options that are available to improve
the resiliency of critical infra- structure to EM threats;
∙ The restoration and recovery capabilities of critical
infrastructure under differing levels of damage and disruption from various EM
threats;
∙ An
analysis of the feasibility of a real-time alert system to inform electric grid
operators and other stakeholders within milliseconds of a high-altitude nuclear
explosion.
Planning
The planning requirements under the new §526 are very similar to
those found in HR 1073. It would require the DHS National Protection and
Programs Directorate to:
∙ Include EM threats in national planning frameworks; and
∙ Conduct outreach to educate owners and operators of critical infrastructure,
emergency planners, and emergency response providers at all levels of
government regarding EM threats.
Restricting DHS
Activity
The final two sections of the bill limit the ability of DHS
to effectively complete any of the above actions. Section 4 specifically denies
DHS any regulatory authority to advance EMP protections. Section 5 specifically
requires DHS to execute the actions discussed above with funds currently
appropriated to the Department.
Moving Forward
Johnson is the Chair of the Senate Homeland Security and
Governmental Affairs Committee so he certainly has the political pull to move
this bill forward. In fact, the bill was marked up in a Committee business
meeting this week. Unfortunately, because the way the Senate does their
business the substitute language adopted by the Committee is not posted to the
Committee web site like we see in the House. This means that we will have to
wait for the Committee Report on the bill to see what changes were made.
It will be interesting to see if Johnson is interested
enough in this bill to put his political will forth to move the bill to the
floor of the Senate. If it gets there, this bill will likely be passed by a bipartisan
majority since it deals with a potentially catastrophic event, but does not
require new regulations, nor will it cost any new money.
Commentary
EMP threats are the classic black swan event; absolutely
catastrophic consequences but very low probability of occurrence. A cataclysmic
geomagnetic storm has about the same probability of happening as a major comet/asteroid
strike on the Earth. The difference between the two type of events is
significant; we will see a comet/asteroid strike coming and may be able to take
actions to prevent the strike. Any warning for a geomagnetic storm will be
quite short.
The problem of a man-made EMP event of national significance
has been widely overblown. Yes a properly designed nuclear weapon detonation
very high over the heartland would very likely result in a catastrophic national-level
EMP event. Fortunately, the old Cold War, strategy for preventing such an event
is still in place; mutually assured destruction. Long before the weapon reached
it detonation point, the massive counterstrike of our nuclear triad would be in
route to the country that launched that missile. There are much more deniable
methods for our nuclear missile capable adversaries to take out our electric
grid infrastructure.
The other main problem with the current efforts to protect
the Homeland against a catastrophic EMP event is that they are quite frankly a
waste of time. Even if we were able to protect the electric grid from such an
event (a very expensive and technologically iffy proposition at best) it would
still not stop the virtual destruction of our country. That is because an EMP
event of the requisite magnitude would also destroy almost every civilian (and
many military) microprocessors in the country. No modern vehicles would be
running, no communications would be functioning, no distribution systems would
be operating, almost all modern electronic gadgets, widgets and dodads would be
dead because their microelectronic circuits would be fried beyond redemption.
It would be the ‘end of civilization as we know it’. And the scope of that
electronic cataclysm gets worse every day as the internet of things expands.
I am much more concerned about the tactical level EMP event
like that seen in the Oceans 11 (2001 remake) movie. A portable electromagnetic
device is used to create a localized EMP event. The resulting local chaos would
then be used to cover a more common type of terror attack that would be made
more effective by a very reduced response due to the lack of communication and physical
response capability. But even this type of event is currently at almost the
science fiction level possibility, these types of devices would be large,
cumbersome and require a large energy source.
Having said all of that, I understand the congressional fascination
with EMP events. They are conceivably a societal level cataclysm and no one
wants history to record that they did not attempt to do something to prevent
them. Unfortunately, because no funding is made available for the work required,
this bill will only take resources away from other problems that have a much
higher probability of occurrence and it will do nothing to mitigate the
underlying EMP problem.