Yesterday the National Hurricane Center (NHC) published
an update for the expected use of their forecast-cone graphics. The NHC has
been updating these graphics over the last couple of seasons to visually provide
more information. Most of this newly added information was trialed last season
as an optional experimental graphic.
The new information includes:
Incorporates all
land-based (coastal and inland) tropical storm and hurricane watches and
warnings in effect for the continental United States, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and
the U.S. Virgin Islands;
Uses single shading
for the entire 5-day outlook cone;
Legend depicts
symbols for areas where a hurricane watch and tropical storm warning are both
in effect (represented by diagonal pink and blue lines); and
Full and
intermediate Tropical Cyclone Advisories are/will be publicly available on
hurricanes.gov.
This season’s experimental graphics will change how the NHC
determines the dimensions of the cone graphics. On the experimental version
instead of using a set of circles set at a 67% experimental error to determine
the width of the cone, yesterday’s update notes that:
“Beginning in 2026,
the experimental cone will use ellipses anchored at each NHC forecast point,
allowing for the experimental cone to capture a range of possibilities for both
the speed and direction of the tropical cyclone’s forecast path. NHC will experiment
changing two aspects of the cone using ellipses (instead of circles) to account
for errors in speed and direction, and the cone will include 90% of forecast
track possibilities, instead of the traditional 67% forecast error.”
This should mean that the experimental cones will be larger. The
increase in width of the cone will probably be the most noticeable difference,
but the overall length of the cone should also increase.