Short Takes – 6-23-25 – War with Iran Issue

Will Iran Surrender? SAMF.substack.com blog post. Pull quote: “If Trump had looked more carefully at what the Europeans were saying he would have appreciated that they were also urging the Iranians to talk to the Americans, and on a much broader agenda than before. Not only will they need to make major concessions on its nuclear programme, of the sort they were unprepared to make at the start of the month, but they will also need to restrict their missile programme and activist role in the region. These concessions will only happen, if at all, when the Iranians are not only convinced privately that they are losing but that they are prepared to acknowledge it publicly. This moment may not come as long as they can keep firing missiles into Israeli cities.”

Here’s how Iran could retaliate after US strikes on its nuclear program. APNews.com articles. Pull quote: “The U.S. has tens of thousands of troops stationed in the region, including at permanent bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, Arab Gulf countries just across the Persian Gulf from Iran — and much closer than Israel.

“Those bases boast the same kinds of sophisticated air defenses as Israel, but would have much less warning time before waves of missiles or swarms of armed drones. And even Israel, which is several hundred kilometers (miles) further away, has been unable to stop all of the incoming fire.”

GOP leaders face internal pushback, doubts on ‘big beautiful bill’ vote. TheHill.com article. Pull quote: ““I think it’s highly unlikely at this point that we vote on this thing by July 4. I think there is too much work to do. Too many people have to many ideas to come to the finish line to this process. I don’t see a way to hold a vote that gets 51 before the Fourth of July,” a Senate GOP aide told The Hill.”

Satellite images show strikes’ impact on Iran nuclear sites. TheHill.com article. Pull quote: “On Sunday, he reiterated the point on Truth Social, saying, “Monumental Damage was done to all Nuclear sites in Iran, as shown by satellite images. Obliteration is an accurate term! The white structure shown is deeply imbedded into the rock, with even its roof well below ground level, and completely shielded from flame. The biggest damage took place far below ground level. Bullseye!!!””

Iran reportedly moves to close Strait of Hormuz after US attacks. TheHill.com article. No actual action to close the straights reported, just threats at this point. Pull quote: “Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Fox News on Sunday morning that China should ask Iran to keep the shipping lane open because of Asia’s need for oil delivered through the strait. He warned Iran against the action.”

‘There Is No Intel’: Trump’s Attacks on Iran Were Based on Vibes, Sources Say. RollingStone.com article (a noted intelligence source - sigh) Pull quote: “Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), who sits on the Foreign Relations Committee, confirmed Saturday night that American intelligence assessments on Iran have not changed. “I was briefed on the intelligence last week. Iran posed no imminent threat of attack to the United States,” he wrote on social media. “Iran was not close to building a deliverable nuclear weapon.””