Day 1 of 2023 Hurricane Season with TD2 in Gulf

Today is the first day of the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season, and we start off with the formation of a tropical depression (TD 2) in the Gulf of Mexico. The 4:00 pm EDT forecast for the system expects the system to drift south, away from the Florida panhandle and become a short-lived tropical storm (TS Arlene). While this season is forecast to be a just average season (12 to 17 named storms, of which five to nine are predicted to become hurricanes, between one and four of those hurricanes could be category 3 or greater), the uncertainties in that forecast are large. But as one commentor noted (can’t find the link or the name, sorry) the hurricane that hits you is anything but average.

We have seen a trend in recent years for lingering storms, dropping a great deal of rain over a relatively smaller area with historic levels of flooding. So chemical facilities anywhere near the Gulf Coast or Atlantic Coast need to have plans in place to prepare for the common storm effects; strong winds, storm surge and prolonged flooding. And those plans need to be based upon, not the worst that has happened, but on what the new worst is likely to be. And then add 10%, just to be sure.