Short Takes – 6-26-23 – Russian Coup, Mutiny, Insurrection Issue

Rebel Wagner Forces, Threatening March to Moscow, Abruptly Stand Down. NYTimes.com article.  Pull quote: ““There was a higher goal — to avoid bloodshed, to avoid an internal confrontation, to avoid clashes with unpredictable consequences,” Mr. Peskov said. “It was in the name of these goals that Lukashenko’s mediation efforts were realized, and President Putin made the corresponding decisions.”

Prigozhin's Mutiny. SAMF.Substack.com article.  Pull quote: “Now we have a candidate. This coup is being led by the boss of the Wagner mercenaries, Yevgeny Prigozhin. At first the smart money was on his failure because the full weight of the Russian state is against him. Before he made his moves, he was declared a traitor, his offices were raided, and his bases shelled. But the Russian state is inept and decrepit. If the aim was to catch Prigozhin unawares and shut him up it failed, because he appears to have had some notice of what was being prepared for him and so took his own initiatives. If you are going to move against your opponents you need to be decisive. Prigozhin got away (like Zelensky in February 2022).”

Revolt Raises Searing Question: Could Putin Lose Power? NYTimes.com article. Pull quote: “One of the more confounding aspects of the crisis was why Mr. Putin allowed Mr. Prigozhin’s very public conflict with Russia’s Defense Ministry to escalate for months without addressing it. Mr. Prigozhin had been brazenly outspoken in assailing and belittling the Russian military’s leadership.”

Russia is still on the verge of disintegration, even if Prigozhin turned his men back. Telegraph.co.uk article. via News. Pull quote: “He has spoken of the courage and honour of Ukrainian troops, and contrasted the efficient way in which Kyiv evacuated civilians from the war zone with Moscow’s haplessness. Indeed, his verbal ire has been aimed, not at enemy soldiers, but at Russian regulars, and his last broadcast before the rising was a denunciation of Russia’s pretext for the invasion.”

Russia Coup: Pop Goes the Weasel. SpyTalk.co blog post. Pull quote: “The Ukrainians can help that along. One infowar weapon: ridicule over Russia’s unrest. Kyiv put out a video Saturday of a drone operator eating popcorn, which instantly went viral.  Another was posted of Ukraine military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov supposedly issuing a “certificate of appreciation” to Prigozhin for his “efforts and collaboration.” Ha, ha, ha. But just getting the truth to Russian audiences about Prigozhin and Ukraine is a powerful weapon. As Polymeropoulos put it, “What you promulgate is exactly the truth because there is confusion and chaos.””

Why doubling down on Ukraine would be the worst outcome for Vladimir Putin.  Pull quote: SMH.com.au commentary. “Prigozhin’s uprising has also made clear the brittleness of the Russian system. While the corrupt, overly-centralised nature of the Russian state is hardly a new revelation, the past 48 hours have demonstrated how weak and incapable the Russian institutions of state are. That many security services simply “stayed home” during this mutiny, with other military units joining Wagner, indicates Russia has become a fragile state and that there is a deep unhappiness at Putin’s rule.”