Review - Hurricane Hillary and Chemical Safety

News reports (here, here, and here) point to a vey unusual occurrence, a tropical storm (or perhaps even a hurricane) Hilary could impact Southern California late this weekend into the beginning of next week. The same news reports point out that the last tropical system to hit California was an unnamed storm that made landfall in Long Beach in 1939. Unlike Gulf Coast and East Coast chemical facilities, which routinely plan for hurricanes and tropical storms, chemical facilities in Southern California have no history and little experience to draw upon to plan to prepare for and respond to the effects of tropical storms.

The West Coast chemical industry must take Hillary as a wakeup notice about their responsibilities for planning for tropical storms and hurricanes. Given the changes in climate in the rest of the world, it is too much to hope that the next tropical storm to hit Southern California will not happen for another 84 years.

For more details about the potential problems that Hillary will bring to Southern California chemical facilities, see my article at CFSN Detailed Analysis - https://patrickcoyle.substack.com/p/hurricane-hillary-and-chemical-safety - subscription required.

Day 1 of 2023 Hurricane Season with TD2 in Gulf

Today is the first day of the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season, and we start off with the formation of a tropical depression (TD 2) in the Gulf of Mexico. The 4:00 pm EDT forecast for the system expects the system to drift south, away from the Florida panhandle and become a short-lived tropical storm (TS Arlene). While this season is forecast to be a just average season (12 to 17 named storms, of which five to nine are predicted to become hurricanes, between one and four of those hurricanes could be category 3 or greater), the uncertainties in that forecast are large. But as one commentor noted (can’t find the link or the name, sorry) the hurricane that hits you is anything but average.

We have seen a trend in recent years for lingering storms, dropping a great deal of rain over a relatively smaller area with historic levels of flooding. So chemical facilities anywhere near the Gulf Coast or Atlantic Coast need to have plans in place to prepare for the common storm effects; strong winds, storm surge and prolonged flooding. And those plans need to be based upon, not the worst that has happened, but on what the new worst is likely to be. And then add 10%, just to be sure.