Short Takes – 1-3-25 – Before the Vote –

The Pundits looks at the vote for Speaker of the House on the morning of the vote.

Johnson battles for the Speakership: 5 things to watch. TheHill.com article. Pull quote: “That’s because a protracted effort to win over Johnson’s critics — or to locate an alternative candidate capable of winning enough votes to replace him — would run quickly into the process of certifying Trump’s presidential victory, which is slated for Jan. 6. That ritual requires the meeting of a joint session of Congress, which would be impossible to convene without a Speaker in place, not least because the members of the new Congress can’t be seated before the Speaker is appointed to swear them in.”

Whip list: Lawmakers to watch in Friday’s Speaker vote. TheHill.com article. Pull quote: “Assuming all members of the House are present and voting for a candidate, Johnson can afford to lose only one Republican.” This will make vote counting easy, two Republicans voting for someone other than Johnson will mean another vote.

Johnson tries to avoid McCarthy pitfalls as he preps for a speaker showdown. Politico.com article. Pull quote: “There’s a real risk for Johnson if he bends to the demands of his hardliners. His predecessor, McCarthy, cut a flurry of deals before and during the 15 rounds it took him to win the gavel, including making it easier to oust a speaker and giving his hardliners plum positions on the Rules Committee. But those agreements ultimately planted the seeds for the House GOP’s perennial chaos over the past two years, and centrists accused McCarthy of bowing too far to his antagonists, sacrificing leadership’s power and still getting ousted just 10 months later.”

There’s a big problem with trying to replace Johnson — no clear alternates. Politico.com article. Pull quote: “There is another option, of course. When Johnson won the speakership, he was a low-level GOP leader, hardly a top name under consideration. But critically, he came in when the GOP was tired of fighting and he had no enemies to stand in his way.” The unnamed alternative would probably only become named after failure of multiple votes for Johnson.

As Trump's Republicans take congressional majority, Mike Johnson faces test. Reuters.com article. Pull quote: “"He won’t tell the President what is achievable and what is not achievable in the House, and he lacks the situational awareness himself to know what can pass and what cannot," Massie said, "The emperor has no clothes and the entire conference knows it but few will say it. The general public knows it too."”

Here’s How Mike Johnson’s Speakership Bid Could Come Undone. NYTimes.com article (free). Pull quote: “If there is no speaker in place by Monday, there would also be consequences for Mr. Trump himself. Without a functioning House, Congress could not meet for the constitutionally mandated joint session on Jan. 6 to certify the results of the 2024 presidential election. Mr. Johnson has been reminding Republicans of that fact early and often.” The complicating factor that was not involved in the 2023 votes.