There is an interesting
article over at WTOP.com about work supposedly being carried out by the
Secret Service in their attempts to prevent a re-occurrence of the recent
‘drone incursion’ at the White House. I’m very surprised that they are doing
their testing in Washington, DC, but that may just be because there are more
air space controls in place there than most anywhere else in the country. But,
all of that aside, the discussion of disrupting drone activities is an
important one for all critical infrastructure security, one that I have pretty
much ignored until now.
This will be the first of a short series of articles about
the use of drones as weapons against critical infrastructure and what can be
done to reduce the risk of their successful employment as a weapon.
What is a Drone
Thanks to the War on Terror just about anyone in the world
that hears the word ‘drone’ first thinks of war birds like the Predator
equipped with Hellfire missiles, taking out al Qaeda leadership or killing
innocent civilians depending on your point of view. This is for all intents and
reasonable purposes a war plane. While some commentators (and a couple of
popular TV shows) have warned about terrorists gaining control of such weapons,
defending a facility against such attacks is a job for the US Air Force not the
local chemical facility security manager. So I will ignore such sophisticated
weapons until such time as North Korea
or Iran
starts selling them at Wal-Mart prices to various terrorist organizations.
No what is of legitimate concern to security managers at
critical infrastructure locations is the much more common and less
sophisticated remotely piloted vehicles that the FAA
is calling sUAV (small unmanned aerial vehicle). Weighing less than 55 lbs
this class of vehicles encompasses everything from the small toy helicopters
you buy in the mall (the FAA calls these micro UAV if they weigh less than 4.4
lbs) to hobiest type vehicles like the quad copter that crashed at the White
House, to sophisticated surveillance aircraft being introduced into service
around the country.
The limited payload size of these aircraft means that they
will be unlikely to be used against hardened targets like nuclear reactors.
They would, however, be able to carry a small explosive or incendiary device,
which means that they could be capable of initiating an attack on a chemical
facility.
More likely, however, is that the surveillance capability of
these types of vehicles could by terrorists to gain detailed knowledge of the
layout and security measures at a targeted facility in preparation for an
attack, or even for command and control activities during an infiltration.
A much more likely use of these vehicles will be
surveillance activities by non-violent activist groups (think GreenPeace)
wanting to document perceived or alleged environmental or ethical violations at
chemical facilities. Similarly, I expect that we will see an increasing number
of news organizations using these sUAV for acquiring videos for the evening
news.
Drone Capabilities
Because of the wide variety of potential vehicles it is
going to be difficult to describe a specific set of characteristics for this
class of aircraft. In order to remain in the sUAV classification the FAA does
intend to limit the maximum speed to 100 mph and require that an operator be in
constant control of the device.
Fixed wing versions of these drones are going to have some
limitations on their maneuverability just because they require air flow
over/under their wings to maintain lift; they won’t be able to hover for
instance. Their low weight, however, will mean that they will be able to fly
relatively slowly without stalling. Low speed also means pretty good maneuverability.
Rotary winged versions will probably not reach the 100 mph
speed, but they will be very maneuverable and will be able to hover and
reverse. Spinning the aircraft body in place will also be a rather unique
capability.
Motive power will be electric for the smaller aircraft and
internal combustion engines will be common on the larger versions. The electric
versions will be relatively quiet; the IC’s not so much.
All of these sUAV will require real-time electronic
communications with their controller/pilot. This means a WiFi, cell phone or
radio link.
Weaponization
To date I haven’t seen any specific discussion of weapons
actually being deployed on any of these small aerial vehicles, but it is just a
matter of time. Because of the size of the platform, however, there will be
some limitations.
You can just about forget these vehicles being used as gun
platforms. It wouldn’t be too hard to mount a small barrel and firing device,
but any cartridge of significant caliber will provide so much recoil that the
flight controls will be seriously disrupted. This will be less true of the
larger, fixed-wing aircraft, but the engineering required to design and build a
system with any significant size (caliber) and accuracy will be extensive. I
know some gun-nuts that would be interested in the challenge, but I don’t see
anything happening in this arena soon.
Rockets would be much better suited to this type of
platform. The problem would still be size/weight restrictions. The aiming and
firing mechanism is going to be a design challenge. The small size of the
warhead for any but those mounted on the largest platforms in the class will
limit the strike utility of these weapons.
The most effective way to weaponize these vehicles would be
with explosives. Bombing will certainly be tried, but I suspect that the
accuracy will be WWI level; certainly nothing like the precision weapons
delivery we’ve come to expect of sophisticated aerial platforms. Much more
effective will be the flying bomb where the explosive payload never leaves the
aircraft. A couple of pounds of plastic explosive will be well within the
capability of all but the smallest micro UAV. This is the type of weaponization
that would be the cheapest and easiest to engineer; I expect that it will be
the first to be employed in the wild.
There is also the possibility that these aircraft could be employed in an electronic warfare mode. Many large chemical manufacturing facilities use wireless communications techniques in their control system deployments. Using a drone as a platform to intercept, jam or mimic these communications could provide a unique attack capability. This mode of attack would require a great deal of sophistication and multiple areas of expertise to implement. In the near term this is a low probability attack method.
There are other less sophisticated ways to employ sUAV as
weapons. The easiest, of course, is to employ the aircraft as a direct kinetic
weapon, just fly it into the target. This was a well publicized method used by
a very limited number of Japanese pilots in WWII. The higher the speed
capability the more effective this will be as an attack method.
There are other attack techniques that could be used in
specialized situations. I’ll give just couple of examples that come to mind. Attach
a long copper wire to the drone and fly it into an electric sub-station;
exciting things will happen. Or fly a drone through a flare at a refinery; great
balls of fire.
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