We are getting close to the end of the COVID-19 Pandemic and
all of the changes that it has wrought on the world in general and the Chemical
Facility Anti-Terrorism Standards (CFATS) program in particular. What will that
brave new world look like?
The End of the Pandemic
It is unlikely that the pandemic will just stop being. We
are likely to see a continuing loosening of restrictions as more people get
completely vaccinated. We already see a gradual decline in the vaccination rate,
and it is becoming clear that we will have a relatively large segment of the population
that will not accept a free vaccination for a variety of reasons.
At this point it is not clear if that anti-vax sentiment
will prevent the country from reaching ‘herd immunity’. That is the point where
the rapid spread of COVID-19 would no longer be possible because the likelihood
of an unprotected person coming in contact with an infected person is low
enough that most cases will not result in another person becoming infected.
Scientists still do not know enough about the COVID virus to
be able to give us (and more importantly the government) a firm figure about
how many people have to be protected (either by vaccine or previous infection) to
be able to declare the pandemic over. And making the problem even more
difficult the ongoing mutation of the virus is going to continue to produce new
strains that will inevitably have an effect on the transmissibility of the bug.
The more transmissible, the larger number of people that will have to be
protected before herd immunity could be declared.
The End and CFATS
The managers for the CFATS program did not really put an awful
lot of changes in place because of the pandemic. They did modify
their compliance inspection regime somewhat, including adding a remove audit
process. Other than that, there were not any other real programmatic changes to
the CFATS process. I expect that at some point we will see the Office for
Chemical Security (OCS) announce that those inspection regime changes would be
terminated.
Unofficially, OCS let the covered chemical facilities know
that they understood that there were going to be process modifications made by
facilities to cope with the staffing issues associated with the running of
their facilities. In some cases, those changes were coordinated with chemical
security inspectors (CSI) and in others not. In any case OCS accepted the
reality of the situation and essentially turned a blind eye when those changes
had minor impacts on the site security plans (SSPs) that facilities had
negotiated with DHS.
I doubt that we will see any centralized notifications that those
facility led changes are no longer acceptable. Rather, I think that contact will
be made by CSI and they will work with facilities to transition back to where
their SSPs were before the pandemic struck.
The COVID Reality
One thing is becoming increasingly evident, COVID-19 will be
with us for quite some time, if it is ever in fact eliminated. We are seeing
people previously infected with the virus becoming re-infected. The rate is
relatively low at this point, but how much of that is because the potential
rate is low and how much is related to the protection provided by social
distancing and mask wearing has yet to be determined.
Additionally, we are seeing a small number of people who
were successfully vaccinated becoming infected. This is not unusual in any
vaccination program. There is just too much variability in people’s immune
systems to achieve 100% success rate.
As I mentioned before, we are continuing to see mutations
within the virus producing different strains. So far, there has not been a
strain publicly identified that is significantly changed to be able to infect
large numbers of vaccinated people. It would seem inevitable, especially with
the huge number of new infections that we are seeing in India and South
American, that such mutations will arise. The more infections that occur, the
more the virus will mutate.
All of this is going to mean that facility management is
going to have to plan for local outbreaks of COVID-19, especially in areas of
the country with higher non-vaccination rates. Since management has a pretty
good idea of the potential effects of such outbreaks based upon their COVID
experiences, they should be able to come up with a reasonable plan to respond
to such outbreaks.
I would not be surprised to see OCS mandate that facilities
develop a pandemic/epidemic response plan under Risk-Based Performance Standard
14, Specific Threats, Vulnerabilities, or Risks. Taking a hard look at what
worked and did not work in the last year, facilities should not have too much
of a problem developing such a response plan. The approved plan should be able
to be implemented by the facility with notice to OCS or when directed by OCS.
Such a response plan would be developed and approved in much
the same way that any revision to the facility’s SSP is done. Facilities would
come up with their proposed plan and negotiate an approve through OCS. It would
then become an inspectable part of their SSP during compliance inspections.