I have been waiting patiently since the bombing in Nashville
on Christmas day on information about the explosive used to talk about its
potential impact on the Chemical Facility Anti-Terrorism Standards. The use of
ammonium nitrate or some other ‘conventional’ improvised explosive would have
called into question the effectiveness of the CFATS program in preventing the
theft/diversion of IED precursor chemicals. Well, the unofficial word appears
to be out that the CFATS program has no worries, but maybe the rest of us do.
The Article
I ran across an
article on thedailybeast.com that posits that the bomb appears to have been
a fuel-air bomb (or thermobaric
weapon), an explosion created by the detonation of a large mass of
flammable gas. The military likes this type of fuel-air explosive (FAE) for
destroying things because they create a large area of over-pressure that has a
propensity for collapsing structures and is useful in detonating mine fields.
It is the former capacity that would have apparently been the intended use of
the Nashville bomber.
According to the article, the bomber apparently released a
flammable gas from a pressurized cylinder (propane would be a likely choice)
inside the motor home used as the vehicle in the vehicle-borne improvised explosive
device (VBIED) and then detonated it when it had reached an appropriate fuel-air
mix within the vehicle. The problem posited by the article is that the bomber
would probably already be unconscious or dead from asphyxiation by the time the
proper concentration were reached.
Background
To understand the limitations of an FAE you have to understand
two flammability concepts well known to chemical process safety professionals,
LEL and UEL. LEL is the ‘lower explosive limit’ for a chemical, the minimum
concentration of the chemical in air that can be ignited; below that limit
there is too much distance between the molecules of that chemical in the air to
sustain combustion. Similarly, the UEL is the ‘upper explosive limit’; above
that limit there is not enough oxygen in the air to sustain combustion.
The LEL and UEL is well known for all industrial chemicals.
There is a nice table over on the engineeringtoolbox.com that provides the UEL
for common industrial gasses. The table shows the limits for propane (for
instance) as 2.1 to 10.1% respectively.
Now the total energy released in a FAE is directly related
to the total weight of the material that will be oxidized in the conflagration,
typically carbon, nitrogen and hydrogen. So, generally, the higher the UEL the
more material available for combustion and the more energy released.
Simplistically, the more stuff, the bigger the boom.
Hmmm. Looking at the table acetylene would be a much better flammable
gas than propane; hardly surprising to anyone that has seen fires at acetylene facilities.
One last technical issue, you can get bigger, faster
explosions by adding more oxygen to the atmosphere.
Why No More IFAEs?
Okay, if these improvised fuel-air explosives (IFAEs) are so
impressive why haven’t they been more prevalent? Why is this possibly the first
one in a terror attack? There are a number of technical problems with IFAEs.
The first is mixing. If the flammable gas is not adequately mixed in with the
atmosphere you will have portions of the containment (the motor home in this
case) where you are below the LEL or above the UEL. If your detonator (flame source)
is in either of those areas, you will not get a detonation. If your
concentration (even if well mixed) is too close to the LEL you will get a fire
that burns out too quickly due to lack of fuel; same for being too near the UEL
but for lack of oxygen.
You also have to be very careful to remove any unintended
sources of ignition, including static discharges from releasing the gas into
the containment area. Any premature ignition will lead to underperforming
explosives due to the mixing issues described above.
The military solved these problems with their thermobaric
weapons through lots of engineering, trial and error and lots of repetition.
Terrorist bomb makers are going to have to go through the same type development
process. It is much easier to just use the readily available conventional IEDs.
No CFATS Problem?
If it is confirmed that the Nashville bombing was an IFAE,
there will be no finger pointing at the CISA CFATS program because the program
does not attempt to regulate flammable gasses as theft/diversion security
threats. While many of the chemicals listed in the table mentioned above are on
the Appendix A, 6 CFR Part 27, list of DHS chemicals of interest, they are all
regulated as release-flammable security threats. Security measures are put into
place to ensure that industrial storage tanks of these materials are not
ignited or turned into local FAEs.
Could they be regulated as theft/diversion chemicals of
interest? Not likely. DHS has not been able to come up with a cost-effective
way to regulate the sale of ammonium nitrate, a much less common but better
understood IED precursor. How would they be able to regulate the sale of
propane cylinders or even acetylene cylinders?