Congress in 2026

Tomorrow marks the first day of the Second Session of the 119th Congress. While there have been no new elections since the last real session of the 119th in 2025, there have been a number of political changes that may affect how well the Republicans will control the House and Senate. This could have major legislative implications particularly in the House.

Republican control of the House has already been weakened by the resignation (effective tomorrow) of Rep Green (R,GA). Until Georgia holds a special election to replace her, there will be one fewer vote for their narrow majority when the matter follows a party-line vote. One or two missing Republicans on votes could mean a Democratic majority, and this is an election year so there will be an increase in the number of missing congress critters due to electioneering. This will affect both sides of the aisle, but it is something that Speaker Johnson is going to have to pay close attention to in his vote scheduling.

Another problem that will face both Johnson and Majority Leader Thune (R,SD), is the increasing number of members that are not seeking reelection. According to BallotPedia.org there are 53 members of Congress (9 in the Senate and 44 in the House) who have announced that they will not be running for reelection in their current seat, and that number is expected to increase. While a slim majority are running for another office, 26 (8 in the Senate and 18 in the House) are retiring.

The seven Republicans retiring in the House are going to be the ones to watch. Since they are no longer subject to primary threats by the President, they are going to be harder to press to toe the line on key votes. Most of them will continue to vote with the caucus on most issues, but we are going to see an increasing number joining Democrats on the moderate sides of votes. The more radical Republicans in the retirement group {Rep Roy (R,TX) for instance} are also going to be more difficult to press into service.

Thune is going to face a similar problem in the Senate, particularly on cloture votes and some nominations. This is going to make the political dealing in amendment votes much more difficult. Both sides of the Republican spectrum are going to be placing conflicting demands on Thune, and this will make it more difficult to pass even slightly controversial bills.

Discharge petitions are another area where some of these retiring Republicans in the House will make life difficult for the Speaker. Minority Leader Jefferies (D,NY) is going to be hard at work finding more issues where a few retiring Republicans will be swayable for signing discharge petitions to bring legislation to the floor that Johnson and the Administration oppose. This has already started to be an issue, but it will increase in 2026.

The other election related problem that both Republican leaders in Congress are going to have to face is that moderates seeking reelection are going to be increasingly reluctant to toe the party line as the President’s popularity continues to decline. This will become a major problem after primaries are held this year when swing district politicians have to moderate their stances to keep attracting moderate voters from the other side. Johnson and Thune both understand this and will try to pass the more radical portions of their agenda before the primaries. I expect, however, that the President will continue to press for his agenda right up to election day (and of course beyond). This will particularly affect spending bills this summer and fall. There will be almost no chance that any regular spending bills will reach the President’s desk before the election, and there will be a very real chance of a shutdown again this year.