Short Takes – 1-5-24

Future Floods: Global Warming Intensifies Heavy Rain – Even More Than Expected. HomelandSecurityNewsWire.com article. Pull quote: ““Our study confirms that the intensity and frequency of heavy rainfall extremes are increasing exponentially with every increment of global warming,” explains Max Kotz, lead-author of the study published in the Journal of Climate. These changes follow the physical theory of the classic Clausius-Clapeyron relation of 1834, which established that warmer air can hold more water vapor. ”State-of-the-art climate models vary on how strongly extreme rainfall scales with global warming and that they underestimate it compared to historical observations.””

Army buys long-range business jet to spy on China, Russia. DefenseOne.com article. Pull quote: “The announcement comes as the Army turns to more advanced precision missiles to maintain its edge in the Pacific. Such missiles require high-quality targeting data, which could be provided by HADES.”

Why the Navy isn’t shooting down Houthi drones with lasers yet. DefenseOne.com article. Pull quote: “Right now, the estimates are “a 60 kW class laser with relatively mature beam control and combat system integration at moderate production rates will be approximately $100M [million] in limited quantities. For weapons at greater power and/or beam control complexity, the estimates range up to $200M/unit for lasers in the 250 kW class” according to the report. The takeaway: The United States will wind up paying much more in the short term to save more on missiles.”

The War in Ukraine Is Not a Stalemate. ForeignAffairs.com article. Pull quote: “This perception of stalemate, however, is deeply flawed. Both Moscow and Kyiv are in a race to rebuild offensive combat power. In a conflict of this scale, that process will take time. While the first half of 2024 may bring few changes in control of Ukrainian territory, the materiel, personnel training, and casualties that each side accrues in the next few months will determine the long-term trajectory of the conflict. The West in fact faces a crucial choice right now: support Ukraine so that its leaders can defend their territory and prepare for a 2025 offensive or cede an irrecoverable advantage to Russia.”

Natural Resource Damages for Hazardous Substances. Federal Register DOI NPRM. Background: “Since its promulgation, the Type A Rule [link added] has rarely been utilized to resolve CERCLA Natural Resource Damage Assessment and Restoration (NRDAR) claims. This may be partly due to the Type A Rule's restrictive scope—to two specific aquatic environments when relatively low-impact, single substance spills occur. Additionally, the model equation for each Type A environment is the functional part of the rule itself—with no provisions to reflect evolving toxicology, ecology, technology, or other scientific understanding without a formal amendment to the Type A Rule each time a parameter is modified. The result is an inefficient and inflexible rule that is not currently useful as a means to resolve NRDAR claims and promote natural resource restoration. For these reasons, the Department is now seeking to modernize the Type A process and develop a more flexible and enduring rule than what is provided by the two existing static models.” Comments due March 5^th, 2023.