Coastal Louisiana Expects 2 Hurricanes This Week

As if 2020 were not already crazy enough mother nature looks to be adding a new first to the mix. For the first time it looks like two different hurricanes could hit the State of Louisiana in the same week; first Marco then Laura. The forecast (for both intensity and landfall location) for both storms is a tad bit more iffy than normal for a variety of reasons, but it seems that both systems will hit the Louisiana coast this week.

TS Marco

This morning’s forecast for Marco shows the track below for a potential landfall on the coast sometime Monday afternoon as a category 1 hurricane.

Marco Track from NOAA data

0800 on 8-23-20

According to NOAA one of the ‘key messages’ to take away from the current forecast for Marco is:

“Hurricane conditions, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected from Marco along portions of the Gulf Coast beginning on Monday, and Hurricane and Storm Surge Warnings have been issued. Interests in these areas should follow any advice given by local government officials.”

TS Laura

This morning’s forecast for Laura shows the track below for a potential landfall on the coast sometime Thursday morning as a category 1 hurricane.

Laura Track from NOAA Data

0800 on 8-23-20

Since Laura is a further from potential landfall there is much less certainty in the time, location and intensity forecast. This morning’s NOAA ‘key messages’ includes this:

“The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts remain uncertain since Laura is forecast to move near or over portions of the Greater Antilles through Monday. However, Laura is forecast to strengthen over the Gulf of Mexico and could bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of next week. This could result in a prolonged period of hazardous weather for areas that are likely to be affected by Tropical Storm Marco earlier in the week. Interests there should monitor the progress of Laura and Marco and updates to the forecast during the next few days.”

Emergency Planning and Response

COVID-19 has already thrown a bit of a monkey wrench into the planning and response process for this hurricane season. Planners and responders have to address the normal chaos of a tropical system landfall while still being concerned about social distancing, COVID vulnerable populations and an unusual number of very sick people in the affected area.

When you add in a potential second storm within days of the first landfall, the problems multiply. While FEMA normally expects to move supplies toward the affected area before the storm and then into the affected area once the storm passes, they are going to have to consider a two-stage movement of supplies into the affected area. This could potentially put responders for the Marco landfall into harm’s way when Laura hits. FEMA’s response will hinge on how strong Laura is expected to be at landfall when Marco actually hits. The stronger Laura is expected to be, the more complicated FEMA’s decision will be.

A further complication is the two different tracks the two storms are expected to take once they make landfall. This will make the siting of prepositioning of emergency supplies more difficult. FEMA does not want to place their supplies in the way of the storm so they would typically place these sites to either side of the proposed track. With two significantly different tracks, FEMA is going to have to rely on a limited number of prepositioning sites on the Gulf Coast to the East of the storms. This will mean placing the sites further from the projected landfall and limiting the flow of supplies to the I-10 corridor. This will cause logistic nightmares that will further complicate the problems identified above.

Facility Planners

Chemical facility and energy facility owners in the area will face many of the same problems that FEMA will face in responding to the potential twin hits of Marco and Laura. There will be a limited time for response after Marco’s landfall before Laura arrives on the scene. Owners are going to have to make hard decisions on what level of response they will make for damage from Marco before a second storm arrives on scene. Any repairs made in that short time frame will be potentially damaged in the second strike, doubling the cost of repairs. But failing to shore up damage from the first storm could make damage from the second storm that much worse.

And again, the two different storm tracks are going to play havoc with the various cooperative response agreements in place across the Gulf and the prepositioning or response crews and material. The I-10 corridor is Florida is going to be a really crowded area for the next week or so.