On Friday the Senate started
debate on amendments to HR 3944, the Military Construction, Veterans
Affairs, and Related Agencies Appropriations Act, 2026. The amendments
considered were based upon the substitute language (SA
3411 see discussion below) offered by Sen Collins (R,Me). After adopting 22
amendments (none of specific interest here) and rejecting six, the Senate
passed the amended bill by a strongly bipartisan vote
of 87 to 9 (2 Republicans, 6 Democrats, and 1 Independent voted Nay, so
bipartisan opposition as well).
Substitute Language
Collins had proposed several version of the substitute
language amendment over the last two weeks (see here,
here,
and here
for brief discussions about some of the alternatives), but the final version
set forth in SA 3411 included three divisions:
Division A – MilCon
spending
Division B – ARD
spending, and
Division C –
Legislative Branch spending
Thus, this bill, if passed in the House and signed by the President
would cover a quarter of the twelve spending bills that need to be passed by
September 30th, 2025 (see the discussion below). That would then
require a continuing resolution to keep the remainder of the government in
operation past October 1st.
Moving Forward
The bill will head back to the House (who will not be back
in Washington until September). There the House will have five options:
• Ignore the Senate
version of HR 3944, pass a complete government continuing resolution before
October 1st, 2025,
• Vote for the
Senate version, and then pass a rest-of-the-government CR before October 1st,
• Vote against the
Senate version, and request a conference committee, do not pass a revised
version before October 1st, but pass a complete government
continuing resolution before October 1st,
• Vote against the
Senate version, and request a conference committee, pass a revised version
before October 1st, and then pass a rest of the government CR before
October 1st, or
• Do not pass
anything and shut down the government.
Commentary
The radical-right Republicans are not going to support the
Senate version of HR 3944. It does not cut anywhere near enough spending, and
it does not include any of the policy riders favored by that fringe. Speaker
Johnson is going to have to use Democratic votes to accept the Senate
amendments to HR 3944 (or a conferenced version of that bill).
While he has been successful in the past doing that, it does
not mean that he will be able to continue to drink from that well. The big
question will be does he have the support of the President? I have not seen any
commentary on that question and any direction from that source could easily
change in the more than a month left before the House could possibly take up
the issue. I suspect, however, that if Johnson wants to avoid a shutdown, an
early adoption of the Senate language for HR 3944 would give him the best
chance to reach a deal with Democrats for a continuing resolution with the
least objectionable language for the Republican base. The longer he waits, the
harder it is going to be to be to reach a workable compromise on the CR.
For more details about the provisions of this bill, see my
article at CFSN Detailed Analysis - https://patrickcoyle.substack.com/p/senate-passes-hr-3944-fy-2026-milcon
- subscription required.