Short Takes – 2-21-25

The Texas measles outbreak: How bad could it get? EpieEllie.Substack.com article. Pull quote: “What are we looking at here? This plot shows us how the measles outbreak in Gaines County Texas could grow over the next 100 days (give or take — Day 0 is Jan 23rd). The dashed dark blue line shows us how the number of people who are susceptible to measles could change over time — we start with about 5000 people (roughly the unvaccinated population of Gaines County), and in our model this gradually reduces to only 202 people!”

Why the Texas measles outbreak was ‘inevitable’. TheHill.com article. Pull quote: ““And once you get that one case of measles in a vulnerable community, it spreads like wildfire. Any community with a less than 95 percent immunity rate is an outbreak waiting to happen with measles,” Yancey added. “These counties that have low immunity rates are going to have measles outbreaks. It is not a matter of if but when.”

The $100 Trillion Disruption: The Unforeseen Economic Earthquake. WildFireLabs.Substack.com article. Interesting look at 2^nd and 3^rd order effects of new weight loss drugs. Pull quote: “Look at Las Vegas. Five major casinos are redesigning their floor plans, shrinking restaurant and bar space by 35% and expanding wellness spas and medical tourism facilities. Vegas, the city built on impulse spending, is investing in the post-impulse economy.”

So many Americans died from COVID, it’s boosting Social Security to the tune of $205 billion. Fortune.com article. Pull quote: “The working paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research finds that approximately 1.7 million excess deaths among Americans 25 and older occurred between 2020 and 2023 related to the pandemic. Premature deaths related to COVID mean Social Security will not make retirement payments to those individuals in the future, reducing payments by about $294 billion, the researchers found.”

Trump Plans to Impose Tariffs on Pharmaceuticals. Here's What to Know. MedPageToday.com article. Pull quote: “It depends on the type of medicine. Brand name medications from leading E.U. based manufacturers have sufficient gross margins built into their pricing, so an additional 10% or 25% tariff wouldn't necessarily get passed on to the payers (insurers) and hospitals, or to patients if it is direct pay or OTC medication. For generic pharmaceuticals made in India or China, a 25% tariff is more likely to be passed on to payers, hospitals, and patients because lower gross margins make it less feasible for manufacturers to absorb the added cost.”

Careful catalyst design boosts ethanol to hydrogen production. ChemistryWorld.com article. Pull quote: “Ribeiro, who also directs the US National Science Foundation’s Center for Innovative and Strategic Transformation of Alkane Resources, adds that bioethanol production typically requires fertiliser, which itself usually relies on ammonia, suggesting that the feedstock is unlikely to be carbon-neutral. Furthermore, even if all the world’s ethanol were devoted to this reaction, it would only meet a small fraction of global hydrogen demand while producing an excess of acetic acid far beyond current needs. ‘When it comes to truly green hydrogen, the best route is water electrolysis powered by renewable energy, which is already cost-competitive with steam methane reforming in some regions,’ he says.”