After President-Elect Trump
objected to the language of HR
10445, Speaker Johnson came up with a new version of the CR that met Trumps
requirement, HR
10515 (draft version), the American Relief Act, 2025. The House took up that bill this evening and rejected
the revised CR by a vote of 174
to 235. Thirty-five Republicans rejected the leaderships bill along with
all but two Democrats. Politico.com is
reporting that Democrats rejected the bill because they were left out of
the negotiations today.
There were two reasons for the Republican opposition to the
bill. First, it was another continuing resolution and there is a hard-core
faction that will never support anything but the 12 standard spending bills.
The second item was the addition demanded by Trump, the temporary extension of
the debt limit (§5106). There are many in the Republican party that would not
support such an extension without the inclusion of spending limits.
There is an outside chance that Johnson will bite-the-bullet
and bring HR 10445 to the floor for a vote. There will be fewer Republican
votes, but there will be a large number of Democrats that would support that
bill, perhaps enough to make the supermajority limit required for passage under
the suspension of the rules. The number of Republican votes will depend on individuals
weighing the Trump/Musk threats versus being held responsible for a holiday
government shutdown.
Regardless of what happens with the spending deadline, the
Republicans have a real problem facing them on January 3rd when the
House convenes for the 119th Congress. It is now obvious to even the
most hopeful observer that Johnson will not be able to get 217 votes for
Speaker in the opening vote. Too many people are upset with the way this CR
issue was dealt with. And it does not look like Johnson is a good enough horse
trader to get the requisite votes even further down the line. A bigger problem
is the Party has no realistic backup candidate that can do any better. There
are just too many bitter feelings and divergent views of where the Party should
be going. January 2025 is going to be interesting, even before the 20th.