HR 5525 Failed in House – Republican CR Dead

This afternoon, the House took up HR 5525, the Continuing Appropriations and Border Security Enhancement Act, 2024. The House had earlier approved H Res 741, the rule for the consideration of HR 5525 by a vote of 218 to 210. After limited debate, the bill was rejected by a vote of 198 to 232 with 21 Republicans joining all of the House Democrats in voting no.

There were no votes held today on HR 3935, the FAA reauthorization bill which the Senate will be using as the vehicle for their CR. According to @SenateCloakroom on TWITTER.com, the Senate will vote tomorrow afternoon “to invoke cloture on substitute amendment #1292 to Cal. #211, H.R.3935, legislative vehicle for the Continuing Resolution (November 17th).”

The House is currently scheduled to meet tomorrow morning at 10:00 am EDT. There is nothing on the Majority Leaders ‘Daily Schedule’ about what is planned. There is an outside chance that the Senate could conclude their work on HR 3935 tomorrow (Sunday or Monday is more likely, but still not a given). If the Senate does approve the bill (more likely than was the House passing HR 5525 today) on Saturday, the soonest the House could consider it would be Sunday (if the Rules Committee acted favorably Saturday night, which is probably why the House will be ‘in session’ tomorrow). In any case, the government is going to shut down on Sunday.

Commentary

The House taking up the Senate CR would be a major shift for Speaker McCarthy, and it would take a serious deal with the House Democrats because those 21 Republican ‘no votes’ will certainly be ‘no votes’ on a Democratic CR and there would likely be a number of others as well. The deal would probably have to include Democratic votes for McCarthy on multiple vacate the chair motions while the CR was wending its way through the House. If the House leadership was smart the deal would include a change to the House Rules that would rewrite the vacate the chair process, probably using Pelosi’s 50% of the conference process.

House Completed Consideration of Spending Bills – 9-27-23

Yesterday, the House continued their consideration of amendments for the three spending bill that they began consideration of on Tuesday, including HR 4365 (DOD spending), HR 4367 (DHS spending) HR 4368 (ARD spending) HR 4665 (State Dept spending), and HR 5692 (Ukraine supplemental). The House considered 60 amendments and passed 26. None of the amendments were of specific interest here.

Final Action

The House completed action on all five spending bills:

HR 4368 (ARD) Failed by a vote of 191 to 237 (27 Republicans voted Nay),

HR 4367 (DHS) Passed by a vote of 220 to 208 (2 Democrats vote Yea),

HR 5692 (Ukraine) Passed by a vote of 311 to 117 (117 Republicans voted Nay),

HR 4365 (DOD) Passed by a vote of 218 to 210 (2 Republicans voted Nay, 2 Democrats vote Yea)

HR 4665 (State) Passed by a vote of 216 to 212 (2 Republicans vote Nay)

Moving Forward

Three of the bills (HR 5692, HR 4365, and HR 4665) will now be forwarded to the Senate for action. The DHS bill will not be forwarded to the Senate until HR 2 (the House Republican signature border security bill) is enacted (this was included in §15 of H Res 723 that passed in the House on Tuesday). It is not yet clear what if any action will be taken in the Senate. If the provisions of the Senate CR included in the Senate version of HR 3539 (which I have not seen yet) are enacted, we will almost certainly see an Omnibus spending bill sometime after the first of the year. In that case no action will be taken on these bills. If HR 5525 (the House version of a short term CR being considered today) is enacted, the Senate would probably take up the DOD and DHS spending bills (perhaps as its own minibus), substitute Senate language and pass those bills. But the Senate would probably first resume consideration of HR 4366, their first minibus that includes the ARD spending. HR 5692 will likely be taken up in the Senate in either case and will probably pass without change.

Commentary

Of course, this discussion presupposes that the House will pass a continuing resolution. At this point, I do not think that that is possible. While the House was able to pass four of the five spending bill, it was only at the cost of including language that would have no chance of being considered in the Senate, of surviving a conference committee, or being signed by the President. The language of HR 5525 fits in the same mold. Unfortunately for the House leadership, there are probably enough of the Republican 11 that see any CR as an anathema that I will be surprised to see the House approve the rule for the consideration of HR 5525, much less pass the bill.

At this point, I do not see anyway that any CR makes it to President Biden’s desk before midnight Saturday, the government (well vast swaths of it anyway) will shutdown on Sunday. IF HR 5525 passes, it will be some relatively lengthy period before serious negotiations are able to proceed on a bill that would reopen the government as the Republican 11 will volubly insist on maintaining all of the provisions of HR 5525 in any deal, a non-starter as a negotiating position. If HR 5525 fails (and I expect that it will) and the Senate passes HR 3539 (FAA reauthorization) with CR provisions, Speaker McCarthy will be faced with deciding to make a deal with Democrats and facing an inevitable floor fight for retaining his speakership. In either case, McCarthy is going to have to make a deal with Democrats and face the ire of the Republican 11. Now it is just waiting to see how long it will take him to realize that.

House to Try Again to Take-up HR 4365 – FY 2024 DOD Spending Bill

The schedule for activities in the House today includes consideration of HR 4365 [removed from paywall], the Department of Defense Appropriations Act, 2024. This bill was originally scheduled to be considered last week, but opposition from the Republican 11 prevented the Republican leadership from offering the bill for consideration. Apparently Speaker McCarthy (R,CA) feels that last night’s approval of a rule for the consideration of H 5525, the Continuing Appropriations and Border Security Enhancement Act, 2024, signals a willingness on the part of the more radical Republicans to allow spending bills to be considered.

Consideration of the bill will start with taking up the rule for its consideration, H Res 680. That rule provides for debating and voting on 184 amendments, including two cybersecurity amendments and two chemical related amendments that I have discussed here (subscription required).

Bills Introduced – 9-18-23

Yesterday, with both the House and Senate in session, there were 55 bills introduced. One of those bills will receive additional coverage in this blog:

HR 5525 Making continuing appropriations for fiscal year 2024, and for other purposes. Donalds, Byron [Rep.-R-FL-19]

I briefly discussed this bill yesterday.