CSB and 2026 Hurricane Season

Yesterday, just two days into the Atlantic Hurricane season, the Chemical Safety Board published their annual reminder about preparing facilities for potential weather issues related to hurricanes and tropical storms. They note that: 

“Although the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has predicted a below- normal hurricane this season, the threat posed by severe storms still exists. Adequate preparations by chemical facilities is critical to ensure the safety of workers, emergency responders, and surrounding communities.” 

Not much in the way of new information or recommendations, but the 2017 Arkema incident and the 2020 Bio-labs fire do remain as prime examples of the results of inadequate preparation for these unpredictably violent events. Remember that flooding, from both storm surge and rainfall, is expected to cover a wider area than severe wind damage. 

Not mentioned here is the fact that facilities far from the potential impacts of these tropical cyclones almost certainly have their own weather-related hazards to worry about. This too would be a good time to make an annual review of the weather hazards for those facilities. 

NHC Updates 2025 Hurricane Season Products and Services Guidance

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has published a link to their “NHC New Products/Updates 2025” document on their landing page. This document provides a summary of the changes that are being made (some on an experimental basis) to the information that they will provide on tropical cyclones during the 2025 Hurricane Season. The changes discussed include:

• Experimental Cone Graphic with a depiction of inland watches and warnings for the United States,

• U.S. Rip Current Risk Map For Active Tropical Cyclones,

• Updated Issuance Criteria for Potential Tropical Cyclone Advisory Products,

• Updates to the Forecast/Advisory (TCM) product including the extension of hurricane-force (74 mph, 64 kt) wind radii forecasts to day 3,

• Probabilistic Storm Surge for the Hawaiian Islands,

• Annual update to the track forecast error cone,

• Issuance of U.S. watches and warnings on Intermediate advisories,

• Pronunciation of storm names, and

• Social Media information.

Here’s an interesting idea for an AI product that would provide helpful information on tropical cyclone forecasts. Provide a clickable link for each 10-mile-square data set within the warning/watch areas on each track forecast diagram issued for tropical cyclones. That link would provide a summary of NHC data for that location, including forecast arrival time of tropical storm/hurricane winds, top wind speed, 3-hour rainfall, storm surge (for coastal areas), flood potential, and tornado probabilities. Under the current regime, NOAA is certainly not going to be funded to provide such information, but the gross data is available from current NOAA data sets and would be useful for planning purposes.

CSB Publishes 2024 Hurricane Season Warning

Yesterday, 1 month and 3 named storms into the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season, the Chemical Safety Board (CSB) published a press release urging the chemical industry to act expeditiously to prepare for a season of potentially more frequent and more powerful hurricanes and other extreme weather events.

The CSB notes that:

“On May 23, 2024, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted an 85 percent chance of an above-normal 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. Unfortunately, the early arrival of Hurricane Beryl may be a harbinger of worse storms to come before hurricane season ends in November 2024. The storm is barreling through the Caribbean fueled by sea water that is already as warm as it usually is in August or September leaving immense destruction in its wake. As Hurricane Beryl continues its path, southern states including Texas are keeping a watchful eye on its trajectory to see whether it poses a substantial threat in the coming days. In light of NOAA’s prediction and Hurricane Beryl’s early arrival, chemical and refining facilities in the United States must ensure that they are prepared for any potential impacts.”

In addition to reminding the industry of two recent incidents (Arkema Inc. Chemical Plant Fire and Bio Lab Lake Charles Chemical Fire and Release) investigated by the Board that were directly related to hurricanes that hit chemical facilities, the CSB provides links to four related documents and two CSB videos addressing the issues related to extreme weather and chemical safety.

CSB and Hurricane Season

Yesterday, the CSB published a press release that urges “the chemical industry to act now to prepare for potentially more frequent and more powerful hurricanes and other extreme wind events in the months ahead.” This is the second effort this year that the CSB has made related to hurricane safety, the first was a letter to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) to urge inclusion of hurricanes and flooding in weather related protection order.

Commentary

This is more than a little late in the hurricane season (started on June 1^st) for this press release, but better late than never is a long-standing government measure of success. I understand that they were responding to a change in the storm frequency projection from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, but even a relatively mild season could still see one or more major hurricanes landing in the United States.